Saturday, December 27, 2008
RACKET OF STAR BUSES
The racket about Star buses needs to be investigated in depth .On what basis were they started in Bhopal. Why were the buses bought in such a hurry ? How has the justification been altered within a year and the mini star buses launched ? The public of Bhopal at large is ill informed and doesn't care till it is directly and immediately affected. Whereas the fact of the matter is that these have been bought by public money ( a loan ) which is going to impact the common man severely in the middle / long term. Hence it calls for an explanation. If the logic is that it was done on the lines of Delhi/ Indore - it is foolish. For, those cities have a different scale and topography ( being in the plains ). On the other hand, if the idea was to get rid of the rickety old mini buses - why were star mini buses notopted for in the first place ? Who will be held accountable for the losses ? Whether it was malintent or maladministration (or both)- the ones responsible need to be brought to book.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
A NOTE ON THE CABINET
Though the overall composition is good in the context of the MLAs but the distribution of ministries leaves something to be desired. It has clear signs of Shivraj Singh trying to assert himself (at times merely for the sake of it) ; the Sangh having its say esp. in getting the shady ministers dropped and a clear imprint of the central body of BJP asserting itself as also political expediency in the wake of the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.
1. Kailash Vijayvargiya : Giving so many key departments to one person makes little sense. There has been a meek attempt to clip his wings by taking away the lucrative PWD ministry - it is more of a trimming than clipping. Instead , it would've been better if he had been designated as the Deputy CM. Perhaps that may come after the Lok Sabha Elections when some of the ministries would be taken away.
2. Babulal Gaur : He was to be given the upward boot by making him the speaker but the perennial clown managed to land up a ministerial berth- that too of his choice. Perhaps giving the Gas Rehabiltation Deptt. would've been okay but to give Urban administration & Development alongwith is a bit too much. In all likelihood after the lok sabha elections , one of the ministries will be taken away. If he still grumbles- Gaur's burning ambition to establish his daughter -in-law in the political firmament may suffer.
3. Archana Chitnis : She was almost denied the ticket ; by pulling up strings in Delhi she did manage a ticket albeit from a different ( tough) seat. Eventually, she managed to win - that too by a thumping margin. The managers in state BJP were forced to give her a Cabinet berth but not the portfolio she would've been better suited for/ liked ( she's been given school education, higher education & technical education ; she may have been better suited for Women And child welfare).Perhaps after the Lok Sabha elections, the technical education Deptt. may be taken away from her.
4. CM has kept the Narmada valley Deptt. with himself ( It houses the controversial Narmada Samagra Trust). This is all a part of Shivraj's plan to increase his own political ground - by having a complete control over the Bhopal & Narmadapuram divisions. It is in this context that Sartaj Singh was not included in the Cabinet ( And Raghavji rewarded with additional portfolio besides giving the tricket to Sundelal Patwa's nephew). However, the going will not be smooth - Sartaj Singh has already started rumbling and Anil Dave's Narmada Samagra controversy is not going to go away in a while.
5. Harishankar Khatik- Shivraj has made this young first time MLA into a minister to nullify the Uma Bharti factor in Bundelkhand as also due to the caste factor. May lose his job if he fails to deliver in LS elections.
8. Tukoji Rao Pawar- There is much more than what meets the public eye. Not only was the gentleman incompetent in his previous stint but his behaviour resembled that of a small time crook .If he is not cut to size - by dropping him or changing his portfolio , it'll cause continued embarrassment to the CM.
6. Laxmikant Sharma- He would've lost his berth but for the BJP Central leaders' blessings. His stint as the mining minister was scrtachy ; as a PR minister it was OK and as a culture minister ,it was below par. Sharma too will have his department changed based on LS results.
No chief minister ever has the complete control over his entire cabinet but if a substantial chunk of ministers ( Esp. heavyweights ) get the berth against CM's wishes or do not get the ministries of their liking / competence - an undercurrent builds against him and eventually it leads to his downfall . In any case the carrot is still dangling for the remaining ministerial berths after the Lok Sabha Elections. Those who get left out even there will jostle for positions in the party organisational setup. Moreover, by giving ministries to those who quit being MP's will harm the BJP inner party culture in the long run. ( Gaurishanker Bisen has already been sworn in - Sartaj Singh & Neeta Pateriya too may get it later ). After being an MP a person has a certain vision and attitude - which is similar but not the same as an MLA . Thus making him a minister opens up a side route for grabbing a ministerial berth- which is not very healthy.
Meanwhile , I stand by my statement that Shivraj will not last his full term -come what may. For all you know he may have to go only after a year. It'll all depend on whether BJP improves its tally in MP in the LS elections (and also if NDA comes to power ) . If it goes up, Shivraj will try and iron out the wrinkles in his cabinet and also post a team of his handpicked officers. However, if the tally goes down ( which is a likely scenario ), the pulls & pressures in Shivraj's cabinet will sooner or later bring him down.
1. Kailash Vijayvargiya : Giving so many key departments to one person makes little sense. There has been a meek attempt to clip his wings by taking away the lucrative PWD ministry - it is more of a trimming than clipping. Instead , it would've been better if he had been designated as the Deputy CM. Perhaps that may come after the Lok Sabha Elections when some of the ministries would be taken away.
2. Babulal Gaur : He was to be given the upward boot by making him the speaker but the perennial clown managed to land up a ministerial berth- that too of his choice. Perhaps giving the Gas Rehabiltation Deptt. would've been okay but to give Urban administration & Development alongwith is a bit too much. In all likelihood after the lok sabha elections , one of the ministries will be taken away. If he still grumbles- Gaur's burning ambition to establish his daughter -in-law in the political firmament may suffer.
3. Archana Chitnis : She was almost denied the ticket ; by pulling up strings in Delhi she did manage a ticket albeit from a different ( tough) seat. Eventually, she managed to win - that too by a thumping margin. The managers in state BJP were forced to give her a Cabinet berth but not the portfolio she would've been better suited for/ liked ( she's been given school education, higher education & technical education ; she may have been better suited for Women And child welfare).Perhaps after the Lok Sabha elections, the technical education Deptt. may be taken away from her.
4. CM has kept the Narmada valley Deptt. with himself ( It houses the controversial Narmada Samagra Trust). This is all a part of Shivraj's plan to increase his own political ground - by having a complete control over the Bhopal & Narmadapuram divisions. It is in this context that Sartaj Singh was not included in the Cabinet ( And Raghavji rewarded with additional portfolio besides giving the tricket to Sundelal Patwa's nephew). However, the going will not be smooth - Sartaj Singh has already started rumbling and Anil Dave's Narmada Samagra controversy is not going to go away in a while.
5. Harishankar Khatik- Shivraj has made this young first time MLA into a minister to nullify the Uma Bharti factor in Bundelkhand as also due to the caste factor. May lose his job if he fails to deliver in LS elections.
8. Tukoji Rao Pawar- There is much more than what meets the public eye. Not only was the gentleman incompetent in his previous stint but his behaviour resembled that of a small time crook .If he is not cut to size - by dropping him or changing his portfolio , it'll cause continued embarrassment to the CM.
6. Laxmikant Sharma- He would've lost his berth but for the BJP Central leaders' blessings. His stint as the mining minister was scrtachy ; as a PR minister it was OK and as a culture minister ,it was below par. Sharma too will have his department changed based on LS results.
No chief minister ever has the complete control over his entire cabinet but if a substantial chunk of ministers ( Esp. heavyweights ) get the berth against CM's wishes or do not get the ministries of their liking / competence - an undercurrent builds against him and eventually it leads to his downfall . In any case the carrot is still dangling for the remaining ministerial berths after the Lok Sabha Elections. Those who get left out even there will jostle for positions in the party organisational setup. Moreover, by giving ministries to those who quit being MP's will harm the BJP inner party culture in the long run. ( Gaurishanker Bisen has already been sworn in - Sartaj Singh & Neeta Pateriya too may get it later ). After being an MP a person has a certain vision and attitude - which is similar but not the same as an MLA . Thus making him a minister opens up a side route for grabbing a ministerial berth- which is not very healthy.
Meanwhile , I stand by my statement that Shivraj will not last his full term -come what may. For all you know he may have to go only after a year. It'll all depend on whether BJP improves its tally in MP in the LS elections (and also if NDA comes to power ) . If it goes up, Shivraj will try and iron out the wrinkles in his cabinet and also post a team of his handpicked officers. However, if the tally goes down ( which is a likely scenario ), the pulls & pressures in Shivraj's cabinet will sooner or later bring him down.
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
POST MORTEM - ASSEMBLY RESULTS :2008
1. Too clever by half - Uma Bharti played smart alec by filing nomination at the last moment.In a countermove ,the BJP killed two birds with one stone - by pitting the recalcicrant Akhand Pratap Singh ( Ex -Congressman ) against her and also ensuring that both Uma and he lose- by secretly asking committed supporters to vote for the Congress instead.( No rationalistic argument can otherwise explain the official BJP nominee losing his deposit )
2.The dirty tricks department of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh may have got away the second time out ( firstly while ousting Uma and now conspiring against her in Tikamgarh ) but it may not be the third lime lucky.The forthcoming Lok Sabha elections will rebound on BJP and Uma stands to gain (as will Congress). On her part , Uma should redouble her efforts ( as she most likely will ) and for all you know she may go the Mayawati way over a period of time.
3. The BJP organisation has sent a clear signal to all the dissidents that any such activity will result in decimation - viz. Sunil Nayak , Akhand Pratap Singh, Gauri Shankar Shejwar .
4.The BJP has made it very clear that the party is supereme - any leader showing
individualistic traits at the cost of grassroot workers has been shown his/her place
( Viz. Kusum Mehdele, Himmat Kothari, kailash Chawla )
5. That there was anti -incumbency is clear by the reduced vote percentage of BJP- in particular of the unpopular ministers who won by slender margins.
6.It would be incorrect to say that BJSP made no difference - though it may not have won too many seats - all the estranged votes of BJP fell into its lap (instead of mostly going to Congress) thus indirectly helping the BJP ( wherever BJP had an edge earlier ).On the other hand wherever Congress had a narrow edge BJSP prevented BJP from reversing the trend by firther cutting into its votes.(In around 15-20 seats ).
7.It there was one move which paid rich dividends - it was the slew of schemes that Shivraj Singh launched for women . Whether its benefits reached the ground to the desired extent or not - the whole approach was percieved as positive by women. thus cutting sharply into the vote bank of Uma Bharti.
8.It is good that there is no coalition ( though in the long run it is a healthy sign ) since Madhya pradesh is as yet underdeveloped and it helps if one party has a clear mandate. Besides , it has become clear that even in the future - it is the home grown regional parties which will make a mark ( viz. BJSP & GGP )
9.It is healthy sign for the state's democracy that people have focused
on the state level & local issues - ignoring the rhetoric and downplaying national issues.
10. It'll not be fair to say that Pralhad Patel was redundant in these electitons- his faction ( including his brother ) may not have won any seat but they ensured a clean sweep for the Congress in Narsinghpur.
2.The dirty tricks department of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh may have got away the second time out ( firstly while ousting Uma and now conspiring against her in Tikamgarh ) but it may not be the third lime lucky.The forthcoming Lok Sabha elections will rebound on BJP and Uma stands to gain (as will Congress). On her part , Uma should redouble her efforts ( as she most likely will ) and for all you know she may go the Mayawati way over a period of time.
3. The BJP organisation has sent a clear signal to all the dissidents that any such activity will result in decimation - viz. Sunil Nayak , Akhand Pratap Singh, Gauri Shankar Shejwar .
4.The BJP has made it very clear that the party is supereme - any leader showing
individualistic traits at the cost of grassroot workers has been shown his/her place
( Viz. Kusum Mehdele, Himmat Kothari, kailash Chawla )
5. That there was anti -incumbency is clear by the reduced vote percentage of BJP- in particular of the unpopular ministers who won by slender margins.
6.It would be incorrect to say that BJSP made no difference - though it may not have won too many seats - all the estranged votes of BJP fell into its lap (instead of mostly going to Congress) thus indirectly helping the BJP ( wherever BJP had an edge earlier ).On the other hand wherever Congress had a narrow edge BJSP prevented BJP from reversing the trend by firther cutting into its votes.(In around 15-20 seats ).
7.It there was one move which paid rich dividends - it was the slew of schemes that Shivraj Singh launched for women . Whether its benefits reached the ground to the desired extent or not - the whole approach was percieved as positive by women. thus cutting sharply into the vote bank of Uma Bharti.
8.It is good that there is no coalition ( though in the long run it is a healthy sign ) since Madhya pradesh is as yet underdeveloped and it helps if one party has a clear mandate. Besides , it has become clear that even in the future - it is the home grown regional parties which will make a mark ( viz. BJSP & GGP )
9.It is healthy sign for the state's democracy that people have focused
on the state level & local issues - ignoring the rhetoric and downplaying national issues.
10. It'll not be fair to say that Pralhad Patel was redundant in these electitons- his faction ( including his brother ) may not have won any seat but they ensured a clean sweep for the Congress in Narsinghpur.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
LIKELY PERMUTATIONS & COMBINATIONS
Based on my predictions, various likely permutations and combinations
are :
1.If BJP gets the upper limit (103 seats) and BJSP gets the lower limit (18 seats) Uma Bharti would ask for a different CM ( other than Shivraj Singh ) and major portfolios.
2.If BJP gets the lower limit (98 seats) and BJSP gets the upper limit -(22seats) Uma Bharti may fancy becoming the CM supported by the BJP.
3. If BJP gets the middle limit(100 seats) and BJSP gets the middle limit(20seats) -Uma Bharti may be offered Chief ministership provided she joins the BJP.
4. If Congress gets the upper limit (93 seats) and SP(5 seats) and BSP too get the upper limit(12seats) - then CONG and SP could form a coalition govt. with GGP & Others with BSP support from outside.
5. If Congress exceeds the upper limit (93 seats) and SP (5 seats) and BSP get the upper limit (12 seats) - then CONG. and SP could form a coalition govt. with BSP staying neutral.
6. REMOTE POSSIBILITY :If BJP gets less than its lower limit(98 seats) and BJSP too gets lower than its lower limit (18 seats) then BSP might support BJP- to keep Congress out of power.
7.WILD POSSIBILITY : If Congress gets the lower limit (85 seats) , BJSP the upper limit (22 seats) and SP(5 seats) then Congress alongwith SP would support Uma Bharti to become the CM.
N.B: In these elections BSP would be in a win-win situation. Its response would depend upon how close these blocks (Cong -SP& BJP-BJSP ) get to the magic figure of 115.If it supports the former , it can extract some immediate benefits from the centre and if it bails out the latter , it can gain some points in the Lok Sabha elections.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
BJP is likely to win 98 - 103 seats ; Congress may garner between 85-93; BJSP would come in third with 18-22 seats and BSP may be the surprise package with 10 –12 seats.; SP could corner 3-5 seats and GGP could land up 2-4;others might secure 1-3 seats.
Friday, December 5, 2008
SUMMARY -ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2008
1.These elections were singularly dull - there was no wave and no undercurrent. ( neither pro nor anti ) My take is that there is a wave mostly in the case of major events ( viz. Emergency(1977), Babri Masjid demolition ,Bhopal gas tragedy etc. ) and an undercurrent builds up only over a period of time- both these preconditions were not met this time.
2. There were no major issues - ideally ,having somewhat managed the basic issues of
Biji - Sadak -Pani ( Electricity -Roads- Water ) the state's polity should've evolved to the next level issues of health and education but the parties shortsightedly chose to stick with the former.
3. Too many independents- it isn't a healthy sign ( esp. in assembly elections) as they split up crucial votes. In most cases they may not end up winning but may well make another candidate lose. ( At times the mainstream parties encourage them for precisely this reason). Some of the frivolous ones enter for their five minutes of fame or even to make a quick buck ( when the major candidates may pay them to withdraw ).Steps need to be taken to check (if not eliminate ) this mockery of our democracy -to discourage the cult of political entrepreneurs.
3. Too few women - there is a conspiracy of silence among the major parties on this ; Congress had given reservation to women in Panchayats , BJP has announced 50% reservation in municipal bodies ; but when it comes to the assembly elections - competition being so tough - that winnability factor takes over and things remain the same. However, this is perhaps the last time that the mainstream parties can ignore the long pending legitimate demand of women.
4. Too few Muslims- In MP, BJP didn't give ticket to even a single Muslim; Congress gave it to only a handful ;if one sixth of our populace doesn't find representation in proportion, it may create pan India space for a hardliner Muslim party.
5. Too many rebels - it may have something to do with delimitation and the fact that the emergence of new players has created a space but somewhere it has also to do with the singular lack of commitment to ideology.
6. Too few youth-like in the case of women and Muslims youth too have not got the kind of representation that they should have -lip service by all the parties notwithstanding . The few who've managed to land up tickets are politically linked - to their fathers or godfathers. It has a lot to do with the lack of political activity at the College/ University level. Given the fact that a substantial chunk of voters comprises youth, their low representation enhances the flaws of our democracy.
7.Manifestos - were published as an after thought in the last 10 days or so . And mostly were a sort of rebuttal to the other. BSP went to the other extreme of not having a manifesto at all. Both these have a long term impact on our polity - that of scuttling the political debate or not having it at all.
8. Many new techniques( not always commendable ) were applied this time out viz. addressing the rallies on mobile phone ; hiring political workers , using children in campaign, releasing ads on spitritual chhanels etc..
9 The lack of zing this time out is also due to the abridged notification period .
10. Electioneering was more focused in slums and rural areas - the middle classes were not as active participants as they ought to be( esp. in an assembly e lections ).
11. Media lacked maturity (Viz. the use of the hideous concept of impact feature.) - it is all the more reprehensible given that it MP is a developing state and needs responsible press more than others.
12. Relatively peaceful elections- in paticular due to the comparitively peaceful Chambal region. ( Sunil Nayak's murder was an aberration ).
13.Overall higher percentage but marginally less voters ; higher percentage by women and some rural areas - all this points to a slight anti - incumbency against the BJP.
14. Dummy candidates have been used not merely as covers but also to hedge expenses etc. This needs to be sorted out.
15. Relative disconnect of the major parties with the people - reflected in major issues not becoming key factors.(Viz.Coruption, malnutrition etc. )
2. There were no major issues - ideally ,having somewhat managed the basic issues of
Biji - Sadak -Pani ( Electricity -Roads- Water ) the state's polity should've evolved to the next level issues of health and education but the parties shortsightedly chose to stick with the former.
3. Too many independents- it isn't a healthy sign ( esp. in assembly elections) as they split up crucial votes. In most cases they may not end up winning but may well make another candidate lose. ( At times the mainstream parties encourage them for precisely this reason). Some of the frivolous ones enter for their five minutes of fame or even to make a quick buck ( when the major candidates may pay them to withdraw ).Steps need to be taken to check (if not eliminate ) this mockery of our democracy -to discourage the cult of political entrepreneurs.
3. Too few women - there is a conspiracy of silence among the major parties on this ; Congress had given reservation to women in Panchayats , BJP has announced 50% reservation in municipal bodies ; but when it comes to the assembly elections - competition being so tough - that winnability factor takes over and things remain the same. However, this is perhaps the last time that the mainstream parties can ignore the long pending legitimate demand of women.
4. Too few Muslims- In MP, BJP didn't give ticket to even a single Muslim; Congress gave it to only a handful ;if one sixth of our populace doesn't find representation in proportion, it may create pan India space for a hardliner Muslim party.
5. Too many rebels - it may have something to do with delimitation and the fact that the emergence of new players has created a space but somewhere it has also to do with the singular lack of commitment to ideology.
6. Too few youth-like in the case of women and Muslims youth too have not got the kind of representation that they should have -lip service by all the parties notwithstanding . The few who've managed to land up tickets are politically linked - to their fathers or godfathers. It has a lot to do with the lack of political activity at the College/ University level. Given the fact that a substantial chunk of voters comprises youth, their low representation enhances the flaws of our democracy.
7.Manifestos - were published as an after thought in the last 10 days or so . And mostly were a sort of rebuttal to the other. BSP went to the other extreme of not having a manifesto at all. Both these have a long term impact on our polity - that of scuttling the political debate or not having it at all.
8. Many new techniques( not always commendable ) were applied this time out viz. addressing the rallies on mobile phone ; hiring political workers , using children in campaign, releasing ads on spitritual chhanels etc..
9 The lack of zing this time out is also due to the abridged notification period .
10. Electioneering was more focused in slums and rural areas - the middle classes were not as active participants as they ought to be( esp. in an assembly e lections ).
11. Media lacked maturity (Viz. the use of the hideous concept of impact feature.) - it is all the more reprehensible given that it MP is a developing state and needs responsible press more than others.
12. Relatively peaceful elections- in paticular due to the comparitively peaceful Chambal region. ( Sunil Nayak's murder was an aberration ).
13.Overall higher percentage but marginally less voters ; higher percentage by women and some rural areas - all this points to a slight anti - incumbency against the BJP.
14. Dummy candidates have been used not merely as covers but also to hedge expenses etc. This needs to be sorted out.
15. Relative disconnect of the major parties with the people - reflected in major issues not becoming key factors.(Viz.Coruption, malnutrition etc. )
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