Sunday, November 23, 2008

UNDERCURRENT

Campaign in the past two elections has been rather strange in MP - till the very last phase it appears to be a relatively smooth ride for the ruling party but as the D-Day approaches a strong undercurrent builds up for the opposition. This happens only when the incumbent government is walking on thin ice - in not having done "real" work relative to the hype. It was the case in Digvijay's second term as also to some extent in Shivraj's half term. ( On the other hand it may not work all that much in Chhattisgarh since Raman Singh has done substantive work and also had a full term to do it). In a way a somnambulant opposition during the term is a double edged sword-While on the one hand it reduces the chances of change in power ( esp. if the incumbent government does good work ), on the other it puts the ruling party in a sort of a lull bordering on overconfidence ( in particular if the team comprises inexperienced/non-grassroots/ mediocres)

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