Vision Swarnim M.P ;Mission Apna Pradesh

The twin pronouncements of Swarnim MP and Apna Pradesh are too abstract and highly abstruse for a common man. It calls for an analysis and begs an elaboration .To my mind ,the vision of Swarnim M. P. refers broadly to the economic uplift of the state. It is a sort of overview of GDP factors measured in the regular indices such as income growth ,inflation, deficit etc; the secondary. indicators being sport & S&T. On the other hand, mission Apna Pradesh is primarily about belonging and has roots in a welfare state. Human Development Indices (HDI) constitute its undercurrent as reflected in - healthcare; education ; financial self - reliance; a pristine environment; preserving local culture and democracy etc.. This has been roughly stated as Gross Domestic Happiness (GDH) in Bhutan ( a parameter devised by the Bhutanese King ).Yet another indicator doing the rounds is Gross Domestic well being (GDW) - as initiated in UK ) - it measures the delivery aspect through major indicators of development -infrastructure development , law and order , investment etc.The point is that the success of the vision and mission should be evaluated not merely by the GDP but also GDW & GDH . My Take is that GDP should be calculated at the pan state level , GDW by taking the erstwhile states as units and GDH by taking the cultural regions as basis. Furthermore, a state government ought to be judged by GDP & GDW getting equal weightage and GDH being a secondary indicator. In the light of the above ,let's try and figure out an all encompassing vision and a long term mission for M.P.- an overview of " Do's" and a outline of " Don'ts"
To begin with the polity-as the state grows , disparities tend to increase ; consequently money and muscle power come to play a greater role. To minimise its impact ,the weaker , marginalized and younger sections of the society have to be brought in to the political process by cleansing Panchayat & University elections from the influence of political parties. Besides , the middle classes have to involved too - by having regional parti(es) , making elections to local bodies more egalitarian and the like. Furhtermore , political outfits across the s p ec trum have to ensure that parochial, communal and casteist politics is shunned by one and all.
Talking of economy, mega industrial projects will only come to the state wherever minerals and land resources exist. In any case, mega plants are mostly location neutral, involve the upper crust and invariably impact the marginalised. These merely help the promoters and a handful of people - at best this’ll generate large revenues and secondary employment. Hence the focus should be on promoting small and medium industries - esp. of the middle economy viz. manufacturing. MP should become the manufacturing centre of India esp. ancillaries / parts. This should continue simultaneously with skill development- it can yield quantum leaps in the middle term. Thus in the short term- protect, promote and develop the small scale industries in labour intensive areas ;promote and protect the medium industries for high capital - modern technology employment generating areas simultaneously with skill development activity.
In the case of primary economy - Agriculture , Handicrafts , small scale industries etc. - they need to be protected , supported and promoted .
MP should try to be the food basket and granary of India ;it could also be the crafts capital of India. Leveraging its vast area and central location the state should become the warehousing hub of India. The idea is to make Madhya Pradesh the soft skills capital of India -Hindi Entertainment , regional Hindi News , Regional Hindi Films/ Shortfilms etc.; Tourism could be another pillar of MP’s soft strength albeit of the niche and specialised variety. Holding international / global events ought to be a secondary concern.
If science & technology grows at a faster pace than economy,infrastructure–it is a sure sign that the state will grow .Madhya Pradesh must focus on cutting edge /innovative technology ;research in pure sciences should be
the long term zoom .
In sport, the state should focus on its traditional strength as a nursery of hockey , women & junior squads should being the focus; M.P. should promote those sports which require individual skills; less emphasis on power sports or those requiring expensive infrastructure .
Now , let's have a look at the GDW areas.
Madhya Pradesh should encourage public-private partnership in Education, esp. for vocational education ; scholarships and loans should be provided on merit /merit-cum-means basis. Para Medical; paralegal; polytechnics ; training for farmhands ,TV artistes / technicians should form the core; classic /liberal arts & pure sciences should only be the secondary issue.
Make MP the hub of integrated / holistic medicine .Since allopathic
doctors are hard to come by for rural areas have more government jobs for practitioners of holistic/ integrated medicine besides rural postings for medicos during internship. Super specialisation can be mostly taken care of by the market forces.
In bureaucracy, All India Service officers should be posted in govt. of India schemes and GDP areas. All India service officers hailing from the state in joint central-state projects and corporations , the GDW aspects ; state civil servants at field positions in GDH areas. Political interference in the posting of junior officials is a sure way of any government aborting its own delivery.
Talking of judiciary ,bring into play the non - formal players such as traditional Panchayats esp. for minor civil cases ; broadbase Gram Nyayalayas ; simplify procedures and involve para legal functionaries .Beyond that there is not much a government can do- it is upon the judiciary to work out state specific measures to deliver a more just
system.
As for the fourth pillar o f democracy, Smaller / regional newspapers should be supported by the government in a developing state like Madhya Pradesh .Public service journalism ought to be promoted too. However , the critical role in this has to be played by the body of journalists in particular those o f the mainstream press ; they ought to scuttle all attempts to co-opt or embed by the state.
Finally a look at some of the GDH factors.
Madhya Pradesh should maintain its position as an ancient centre of Sanskrit literature and sustain its rich traditional in Indian Classical music ; it ought to retain its recently acquired status as a seat of Hindi literature ; moreover ,it needs to graduate from being a major center of folk , tribal and popular culture to becoming its primary address; corporates could be involved , perhaps as CSR ; appreciating the classical arts is desirable but misses the point without connoisseurs.
To invoke the feeling of belonging to MP , a state song with multiple versions in various dialects is a good idea ; some say that absence of a different language come in the way o f strong bonding ; in th at case let the state language of M.P. should be altered from Hindi to
" Chaste Hindi" ( Vishuddha Hindi) ,particularly the unaccented spoken variety; speaking even words with Sanskrit and Urdu roots correctly should become the hallmark of people of M.P ; besides eliciting respect , it'll give an edge in popular media and entertainment. As for integration, it comes with an integrated economy, uniform education system and the rest of it ; moreover , after half a century , it is high time that people stop flaunting their roots in other parts of the country.
In order to retain the pristine environment of the state , extract cost of maintaining forests from more polluting states. Besides , tribals can be trained to become forest guardians / Special Forest officers ; but in no case allow the norms to be roadblocks for the type of industrialisation suited to the state.
Madhya Pradesh should view activists as vital reference points while formulating policies and implementing processes; care though has to be taken not to allow them to hijack the agenda - they should not be permitted to stall progress unless they come up with a viable alternative.

Spiritual leaders have a role to play in M.P.- in negotiating interfaith problems ; in acting as interlocutors in complex social problems; in helping out government in welfare areas and in times of distress .Only those who deal with secular aspects of various faiths should be welcomed. Keep the involvement of religious leaders limited only to religious matters - any broader mandate in variably leads to conflict.
It is thus clear that the government alone can neither make a Swarnim M.P nor invoke a feeling of Apna Pradesh ; society at large has to be involved. While media and the civil society can make citizens aware of their fundamental rights state has to continually make them conscious of their duties as expected in the directive principles. Using the twin aspects of technology & spirituality as catalysts and solvent respectively the state must attempt to actualise the vision and realise the mission; Moreover, the effort needs to be supported by aggressive marketing and effective promotion if any real headway is to be made.
To sum , Madhya Pradesh will have to have a vision as well as mission - the former for growth and the latter for development. It’ll have both a trickle down & grassroots up approach- for vision and mission respectively. Merely having infrastructure growth will not suffice – it’ll have to have matching Human Resource development too. The point is that in Madhya Pradesh neither the Punjab Model nor the Kerala approach will work – the state has to design its own model and evolve its tailormade approach. For instance , i f Indo re is Mini - Bombay in financial-material aspects, Mumbai too should feel like a less evolved cousin of Indore in socio-cultural aspects.
As of now, it appears that MP government merely has some sort of a mission but doesn't have a well delineated vision. However, if some or most of what has been suggested is implemented , Madhya Pradesh has a good chance to be a leader in chosen areas and wooden spooner in none . It has the potential to either be a state bereft of the Bimaru tag or face the prospect of being a perpetual laggard.

M.P BUDGET 2009 : A MISSED OPPORTUNITY?

Though recession has hit India the least - and within India MP even less - everyone seems to be hiding behind it .General expectations were that the government would try and put its election promises into practice and also leverage the provisions of the union budget. Specifically, the promises of making agriculture profitable , creating employment , attracting capital,promoting core areas ( such as tourism,SME's ), improving infrastructure etc...it was expected That certain long term measures would be announced and some out of the box ideas would be tried. As it turns out, nothing of the sort has happened.It is more of the same of the previous budgets albeit with marginally increased allocations.There is not much for the industry - esp. SME's(Nothing for the textile or auto components industry)... Others had expected that taxation on CPP would be removed - that too hasn't happened. Agriculture has recieved enhanced funds but there is nothing specific about increasing productivity or drought relief ( though there is mention about promoting organic farming and irrigation has got nearly a fourfold raise) ; announcing polytechnics for all districts is perhaps the single most important anouncement of this budget ( funding has been raised for Rajiv Gandhi Shiksha Missioon too) but something more was needed for secondary education ( granting a huge amount of 30 crores for NIFT was bit of a surprise at this juncture ) ; nothing whatsoever has been said about sports & sportsmen which is a shame;tourism has been given a raise but nowhere near what it deserves ;The deficit of 50,000 c rores is a worrying sign ( esp. in the light of recession ) ; though the GDP growth
has been pegged at 5.7 %. ( which is better than some of the states ) the per capita income has slided further down ( even when compared to BJP ruled states s uch as Chhattisgarh & Rajasthan )
I t was expected that in the second innings the govt. would try and go beyond the B.S.P issues - at least somewhat. The budget has been a disappointment on that count -for the lion's share has still gone to these areas. There are hardly any new initiatives - the only interesting ones are: Sudama Scheme for poor students of general category and Rural Technology application programme. Though the share o f the so cial s e dtor ( e sp. women & Child we l fare ) too has gone up but to a large extent ,it is by leveraging the central funds/ schemes. No special packages for any sector / re gion and nothing for minorities has sent a w rong si gnal.Not a word about enhancing eficiency or improving the delivery system. Moreover, improving the drinking water situation has been given the go by ( only a small mention about rural drinking water scheme ) .All in all, it appears to a be lack lusture budget taking refuge in external circumstances .There's nothing to convert crisis into opportunity - surviving the recession is being touted as an achievement.Perhaps you need a different minister for recession - just as in centre you had Pranab mukherji - than what you have for a booming economy.

UNION BUDGET - M.P.SHORTCHANGED ?

In view of the improved showing of the Congress in the LS ele ctions , it was expected that the state may recieve some gifts in the Union Budget. However, none of that happened
and Madhya Pradesh has been ignored in Budget 2009 - there is no special package for the state ( In the light of its drought hit districts ) ; in some areas the provisions have been enhanced ( viz. JNURUM allocation for Bhopal - has been increased by 360 crores) ; in others they have been kept more or less the same ( viz. funds in women & child welfare ) ; in yet other areas the allocation has in fact come down( viz.Share of Taxes - by 460 crores ). The story is same in the indirect provisions - in some areas they've been raised ( NREGA , rural roads etc. ) ; in others , status quo is maintained (viz. agricultural loans) and in yet other aspects the state's share will come down (viz. GST).
In a sense, it appears that having different governments in the centre and the state is good for the polity but bad for economy- at least for the developing states.

RAIL BUDGET - THE MP ANGLE

Madhya Pradesh has the lowest average o f National highways and among the lowest rail coverage.Only when Madhavrao Scindia was the Railway minister that things marginally improved. Now that Kamalnath is the surface transport minister, we can hope for some relative improvemnt in road density. Talking of air connec tivity neither now nor in the forseeable future can M.P. come near the developed states.
In the light of the above, the state needs affirmative action to bring it at least to the national average. However, pardoxically in this year's rail budget ,M.P. recieved only cosmetic and symbolic dollops. Instead of longstanding demands of connecting Bundelkhand with rail lines ; Bhopal - Gwalior intercity train and Indore Bombay Turant besides making the Gwalior Bhind track broad guage the state has been given two world class stations ( Bhopal & Habibganj)- that too in the same city , few model stations and some new stoppages.The work of Lalitpur-
Singrauli rail line conitues at a snail's pace and no new trains have been introduced . It appears that only if and when we have a rail minister from the state that some justice woould be done to Madhya Pradesh.

BJP & CONGRESS : FAKE HYPE & FALSE MODESTY

In 2004 BJP went ballastic with its shining India campaign which was fake hype - and paid the
price for it. Five years later , Congress has adopted its flip mode - that of false modesty; at first, it sang the Aam Aadmi tune while simultaneously giving tickets mostly to the children of erstwhile rulers and MP's ( in the name of promoting the young) ;and now ,while presenting a seemingly pro-poor budget it has retained ( and in some areas even increased ) the pro -corporate /industry tilt in the fine print. Both are dangerous trends with the sole aim of grabbing power by all means - in a sense, it is subversion of democracy.

THE AGENDA FOR NEW GOVERNMENT

To my mind , the ideal agenda for the UPA govt. could look somewhat like the following:
First of all, they would finetune their flagship programmes of the last tenure which had loopholes or could not be properly implemented due to various reasons namely -
NREGP : loopholes to be plugged ; programme to be to be spread to the entire country .
URBAN RENEWAL MISSION : It'll be a key programme this time out - last time they pleased the rural populace , this time Congress will try to entice the Urban voters
( plans for urban poor - viz.slum removal- would be a key aspect ).
NHRM : Last time out it was the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan which was somewhat of a success; this time, the focus will be on rural health ( tackling malnutrition in children would be a key )
BHARAT NIRMAN PROGRAMME : It'll be taken up with redoubled gusto esp. in view of the recession ( Infrastructure projects are best suited for such periods )
Besides ,various other areas in which the ground work was done in the previous innings but could not be implemented for one reason or the other- this time they'll be taken up with a missionary zeal. The key ones are :
SACCHAR COMMITTEE REPORT - Would be implemented since Congress has been
pleasantly surprised by the support it recieved from the Muslims - they'd like to consolidate it .
KNOWLEDGE COMMISSION REPORT - It has been in the making for over 5 years and govt. will do well to implement it without any further delay; within it , the Female literacy mission and the right to education bill would be the key ( last time, Congress focused on the youth , this time it'll be women ).
ADMINISTRATIVE REFORMS - Verappa Moily's report is ready for implementation
action will start sooner than later ( including police reforms ). Key aspects - improving
delivery system ; E - governance ( Incl. Unique Biometric ID number )
JUDICIAL REFORMS : These are long overdue and cannot be ignored by any
government anymore.
Furhtermore , on various fronts the following is likely to be the direction:
Political : Women's reservation Bill
Economy : Amending Land acquisition act; Disinvestment; Goods & Services Tax;Banking sector reforms
HRD : Arangements for skill enhancement & Re - skilling.
Security : Naxalite issue ; Increase police force & Equipment.
Administration : Institutionalised selection of CEC, CVC,CAG, IB & RAW directors.
Social Security : Na tional pension; Food security.
Foreign Policy : Enhance aid to neighbours and provide them access to Indian markets simultaneous with aggressive diplomatic pressure not to harbour anti-India activites .
Things which ought to be included but are unlikely to happen
1 Labour reforms.
2. Privatisation of loss giving public s ector enterprises.
3. FDI in key areas viz. cutting edge education ; selective insurance etc.

THE BACHELOR ANGLE IN INDIAN POLITICS

Perhaps there is some connection between a politician's bachelorhood and his / her success in Indian politics - all other things being equal. Take for instance - Atal Behari Vajpayee, A.P.J Abdul Kalam, Narendra Modi, Mayawati and now Rahul Gandhi... the list is quite long to ignore it as a mere coincidence. In a way the bachelor players of Indian politics are like Hindi film heroines who remain most popular till they remain unmarried.To a large extent , it is applicable to other professions also -esp.where emotional angle is involved ( viz. Lata Mangeshkar in music ).In the west too , this factor works albeit in a limited way- most pure mathematicians as also clergy there lead a monastic life. However ,in India emotional /non- rational factor pervades all the professions/ vocations.
P.S : If Rahul Gandhi is aware of this theory , he will marry only after he becomes the PM.

LEFT GETS THE WORST OF BOTH WORLDS

Almost all the good things which the previous government did for common man were primarily on Left's exhortion - be it NREGP, RTI , the Forest dweller's bill,farm loan waiver etc.However during the elections Congress has got the credit of it all. On the other hand, all the flak for stalling the wishes of middle and upper middle classes (viz. economic reforms , nuclear deal etc.) was heaped on the communists .Thus the Left got the worst of both worlds while Congress received the best( it regained the support of its traditional vote bank of common man as also the votes of the middle classes which had earlier sided with the BJP.To a large extent Left's plight is on account of exercising control without shouldering responsibility( by not joining the Cabinet).A similar thing had happened to TDP too the last time out. This should provide some food for thought for proponents of "support from outside"- they get left out in the long run.

CABINET FORMATION A NON- RATIONAL EXERCISE

On the face of it, cabinet formation should be about matching the best person to the right job. However, in reality, it is anything but that: in fact , cabinet constitution in India is primarily a non- rational political exercise . Only a handful of heavyweights manage to get key ministries matching their experience , expertise and political stature .Beyond that ,some ministers have to be cut to size - so they're not given the ministry of their choice ( P. Chidambaram; D. Maran ) ; others have to be merely pruned - so their ministry/ status is pruned ( Praful Patel, Sharad Pawar); still others are included in view of forthcoming / recently concluded assembly elections their state ( Vilasrao Desh mukh , Subodhkant Sahai ) ; besides , a few are included at the behest of political lobbyists / networking( Sushil Shinde ) while others are vetoed by the competing colleagues ( Girija Vyas , Sandeep Dixit ) ; Moreover, the secondary parameters of caste (Ku. Sailaja, M. Khadge , Mukul Wasnik, K. Teerath ) ,community
( S.Khurshid) , region ( Shrikant Jena, Harish Rawat), tribe ( Kantilal Bhuria )and gender ( D.Purandeshwari ) have to be balanced too alongwith coalition compulsions wherever applicable ( Agatha Sangma) -; The tertiary criteria of age ,lineage and experience also have to factored in ( zhagiri ).All this leaves only a small window for those chosen purely on merit ( Shashi Tharoor ; Parag Jain )... Usually the ones who satisfy the primary, secondary as well as tertiary criteria ( viz . region, community and political stature ) get the cabinet berth ( Farooq Abdullah ); those matching the primary and
Secondary parmeters a re given m.o.s with independent charge
( Panbaka Lakshmi) and the ones fitting only a tertiary criteria land m.o.s ( Arun Yadav,) .Every cabinet constitution some new ministries being created (min.of non- conventional energy resources ) , others being combined / re combined; some erstwhile relatively unimportant ministries acquire importance in a particular phase ( HRD, Surface transport )
The major difference in cabinet constitution between western democracies and India is that while theirs is primarily a rational exercise with a bit of non- rationality thrown in ,ours is predominantly a non-rational act with rationality as mere symbolism; ours get done in phases and emotional factors play greater role (accommodating/ compensating the disgruntled elements). Its outcome is for all to see - whereas the western ministers peform and deliver, ours trundle and grumble. All in all, setting up a good team via cabinet formation is only half the job done- the real and more important half is to be able to make the team perform upto its potential. That is where Manmohan - Sonia- Rahul will be truly tested .

MANMOHAN LACKS CHARISHMA , ADVANI BEREFT OF AURA

Mamohan Singh is among the most uncharismatic leaders in the higher echleons of Indian polity- in that he is not the motivating factor for anyone to perform out of his skin; he is decent and his integrity is beyond doubt but he appeals only to the head with little impact on the heart; Advani on the other hand, has all the outward qualities of a leader - he is a decent orator ; has a mass base and possesses a long and eventful political record; however , there is something negative about his aura that people do not implicitly trust him; In the light of these, projecting the two as prime ministerial candidates was an exercise in selfishness of the vested interests which harmed the parties as well as the country. Sonia by projecting a non- threatening leader in Manmohan Singh wanted to keep the seat warm for Rahul Gandhi- in the process, the country has got a dependant Prime minister and the post has been devalued. My take is that had Manmohan not been projected Congress may have got more seats ; likewise by projecting Advani ,the armchair politicians surrounding him harmed the party's prospects and conse quently gave the country a relatively weak opposition. In a way, it has turned out to be a Hobson's choice in 2009 as far as electing Prime ministers is concerned.

"REAL" PM IN WAITING

Eventhough Advani was the official PM in waiting designate, it is Rahul Gandhi who is the "real" PM in wait. My take is that he'll focus all his energies on UP, Gujarat, Bihar & West Bengal elections till 2011 whereafter he'll accept a cabinet post and by the 2014 LS e lections he'll be announced as the Prime ministerial candidate. If for some reason ( health or otherwise ) Manmohan Singh is unable to continue till 2011, some stopgap arrangement in the form of Pranab Mukherji of A.K Antony may be made fo r the intervening period.

L.S . VERDICT 2009 MADE SIMPLE

The following points are an off the cuff interpretation of the LS elctions 2009.
1. Muslims have voted for a national party( read Congress) once again - chipping away Samjwadi vote .
2. A faint approval of Rahul Gandhi’s youth call(and not as loud as it is made out to be )
3. Reduction / elimination of casteist / Communal / trivial brand of politics.
4. Delimitation has brought in more urban voters into focus as their numbers increased( upto 10 %)- the urban youth in particular has gone to Congress - snatching away the traditional BJP vote.
5. A vote for moderate politics: extremist / emotional politics works in extreme circumstances, if at all.
6. Increase in the vote share of national parties
7. Prolonged elections helped the Congress as they had more intellectual issues to propogate.
8. Dalits (esp. the creamy layer) voted for Congress – eating away from Mayawati's
constituency.
9. Announcing Advani & Manmohan as PM backfired - ( Congress would 've got more seats had it not projected Manmohan as the PM )
10 A victory for clean decent politics-decent leaders, relatively clean candidates.
11. Second time in a row :BJP wins the semi-finals ( Assembly elections ) and loses the national contest.
12. Emergence of new votebanks-cum-exchanges( those which vote en block and move away en block if the parties do not deliver) :caste -class ; community -class & region-class.
14. Congress regaining its social democratic space.
15. Women victors marginally higher in number(61) and their overall participation too has increased- though the figure is still a far cry from the aspired 33%
reservation .
16. Era of pan Indian leaders nearing an end - perhaps Advani was the last of the breed.
17. Though technically the number of offenders who’ve made it has gone up (from 145 to 150 ) but in reality all hardcore /serious offenders have been rejected.
18. The gap between the vote percentages of BJP and Congress has widened beyond 10% for the first time in two decades.
19. Both policies( viz. inclusive growth ) and programmes ( viz.NREGP, Urban Renewal mission etc.) matter - to urban & rural voters respectively.
20 Vote for continuity and change - extrapolation of Congress’ role and truncating that of the regional parties.

PREDICTION CORRECT AGAIN

I'd predicted on this blog on Oct 18,2008 while writing about the aSsembly polls that Congress will win the Lok Sabha elections. To quote :
"...A side benefit of this will be that Congress will gain relatively in the Lok Sabha elections (since the Hindutva votes would have reached their limit in the assembly polls and the votes of the minor parties would get transformed to the Congress ).In fact , the way they’ve gone about things shows no deep seated belief about a realistic chance of victory in the assembly polls...."
This is the second time I've been on spot - the first being in 2004 wherein I'd said that Congress will lose the semi-finals ( assembly elctions in MP) but go on to win the Parliamentary elections.

MEDIA IN LS - 2009 : ROLE & TRENDS

Media has emerged as a crucial player in LS-2009 elections - much more so than ever before. I use the word "player" and not its designated role of obsever since more often than not it strayed from true journalistic principles of independence and balance .This situation arose primarily on account of the fact that this was perhaps the most " indoor " election till date- on account of lack of issues , IPL, scorching summer and a too protracted electoral process .From subtle planting of stories to clever spin on programming to blatant advertorials - it didn't need any
genius to discern the slant(s).From an active media , it became an activist media. Often it was creative journalism at its best.
Some new trends appeared too : tie - ups between newspapers and TV channels ; between newspapers of various regions ; new media ; print journalists in TV newsrooms ; TV journos writing for newspapers ; some channels showing exit polls only in terms of percentages (and not seats) ; public service campaigns by corporates etc. One could term it as confluence-a sort of content convergence . However , its efficacy was at best incremental ; regional copies lacked the desirable insights- perhaps lost in translation ; print journalists in TV newsrooms many a time reacted erroneously to breaking news - perhaps lost in transition - with no double checks of the desk to back them( newsroom is the wrong place to have print journalists - they should've been part of the studio discussions ; print pieces by TV journalists were stenographic - with their trademark lack of depth ( it became even more glaring as they were placed on the editorial pages) ; E xit polls should've known that percentages alone are not the place for TV as it needs the simpleast common denominator i.e the number of seats ( statistical jugglery is best reserved for newspapers/ journals / net ). All in all, it appears that our media( esp. the new media )is still getting its act together- just as our polity - a truly mature media will appear by 2014- shake ups and consolidation will ensure that.

REVERSE FEDERALISM

The constitution professes our polity to be federal whereas in reality it was at best quasi-federal for a long time in a sense that the centre was too strong for the states. Post 1990 ,there has been a continual dilution of the status - so much so that now it seems to be a case of reverse federalism - in that the regional outfits are king makers. The situation has come about primarily on account of the national parties sticking mostly to vote bank politics and simultaneous strengthening of the regions economically on account of liberalisation.
It is a dangerous positon to be in since the polity becomes centrifugal rather than centripetal as it was designed.Not that a fragmented polity translates into a fragmented India but it sure does imapact the growth adversely.In situations such as these , the nation has to make do with creations like the common minimum programme-which can at best ensure incremental growth( as the nomenclature suggests ).Whereas in an ideal federal state there should be a possibility for a maximum common programme too wherein the government tries to realise cumulatively all that has be promised by the coalition partners. India should come up with national coalition(s) led by national party(ies) with regional outfits as junior partners on the basis of both a common maximum programme ( about what needs to be done ) as also a common minimum agenda (about what "not" to do-viz.Keeping Art. 370, Ram Temple issue etc. away ).Only then can we be a healthy federation.

NO REAL ANATHEMAS AT THE CENTRE

Barring the irreconcilbility of the Congress & the BJP and BJP & the Left there are no real anathemas at the centre: SP-BSP; AIADMK-DMK;JD(U)-RJD and the rest can go to either of the three major coalition blocks- UPA; NDA or the third front or at least two of the fronts ( Viz.TDP, BJD etc ) without any compunction. This may be a bit unpalatable to the western observers - esp. those with a two party system.However, there is nothing immoral about it-just as the Congress and BJP agree on many international / foreign policy issues without necessarily forming a national government , the regional parties too can share / switch platforms at the centre in the name of national issues ( viz. secularism ) while fighting it out against the same parties in the states.The situation will continue till the space for the third and poosibly the fourth pan national parties gets filled up . It could be the expansion of te Left (perhaps by bringing in Naxalites into the mainstream ) and /or a pan India Muslim party or some such thing.Till such time the Indian political scene will remain somewhat like shooting a Hindi film - without a too structured script or no script at all. Just leave your brains behind and see for yourself that it works.

SHIFTING BLAME ONTO PAST LEADERS IN POOR TASTE

Both Congress and BJP have found an ingenuous way ( albeit in bad taste) to get around issues which were proving to be an albatross around their neck. Whereas the Congress has shifted the blame for inaction in the Babri Masjid demolition upon Narasimha Rao (Digvijay Singh admitted that it was a mistake) BJP tried to pass on the buck for the Kandahar highjack and release of terrorists fiasco onto Atal Bihari. Logically, they are correct - for, Narasimha Rao and Atal were the respective PM's during these cases but what is in poor taste is that all these years both the parties attempted to skirt these - only now when Narasimha Rao is no more and Atal Bihari has reti red from politics that these parties have tried to use them as scapegoats. Goes on to show that there is little to choose between the two major parties not merely in all major policies but also in approach to uncomfortable questions.

ALLIANCES , CROSS -ALLIANCES OR JUGAAD ?

The alliance era has sprung some very interesting scenarios.Those who had hoped that the two blocks of alliances would stabilise - as a prelude to the two party system- are most likely to be dissapointed with the three emerging amorphous blocks of alliances . This is a healthy sign for Indian Democracy as the two other alliances were much of the same thing ( Including many common players ) - in that they had practically the same approach to all major issues.However , there is still a long way to go before it can be called a robust state. It has to do with two factors - nature of alliances and the timing of their formation. In both the alliances, barring the core parties ( Cong and BJP ) and the anathemas (viz. SP& BSP; AIDMK & DMK) all the other players are floaters. Besides , they are both post poll creations whereby seat arithematic is the glue - irrespectie of the idelogical differences . In a sense , it is like all other Indian things - reactive ; whereas had they been pre- poll , the basis would 've been ideology or common agenda.In that case,the alliance would 've been active,even pro-active. The fact of the matter is that if the alliance /coming together is pre-poll , it helps to achieve certain goals( as in the case of Janata party in 1977 ) whereas if it is post poll -on the basis of seat tally , it helps to survive on the basis of proven ground strength. However, the negative fallout is that the growth is at best incremental , by entities such as common minimum programme. Ideally, there should be both a pre-poll as well as post poll alliance- the former should be based on a common agenda- only the relative emphasis should be finetuned post poll on the basis of seats won. In any scenario such as the current one where the alliances are among too unequal partners - it 'll lead to aberrations wherein the regional satraps start harbouring national ambitions and the situation will invariably remain fluid.The way outwill once again be typically Indian -Jugaad.However, the only point to be noted is that Jugaad can at best produce a functional entity, never a superior one.

NEGATIVE INDIAN DEMOCRACY

Indian Democracy is in most parts negative - a fact reflected during elections.All major parties debate negatively- trying to justify their own negative acts in the light of similar negative acts committed by the opponents ; most minority vote banks act negatively - against a particular candidate/ party rather than in favour ; almost all the parties select candidates with negative track records - on the pretext of winnability ; and ,on assuming office, most parties have a negative agenda - of discontinuing / co-opting even the good programmes of the previous government ; witchhunting the opposition leaders etc. - amid all this negativity we must be really naive to expect positive outcomes from our democracy.The need of the hour is to counter negativity of all the aspects- choice of candidates , debates agenda of office et al.

Akhand Pratap Singh & Indrajeet Patel-interesting case studies

The cases of Indrajeet Patel and Akhand Pratap Singh during the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections respectively makes for interesting study.In both these, the corresponding parties(BJP and Congress ) scored muliple points in one shot.Indrajeet,a one time Arjun acolyte is the Congress candidate from Sidhi against Veena Singh (Arjun Singh's daughter who was denied ticket and is contesting as an independent). Unconfirmed reports say say that Arjun Singh had sought ticket for Veena Singh from Satna and Ajay Singh from Sidhi- the party denied both and instead gave the ticket to Indrajeet. In this scenario Patel's defeat is a foregone conclusion. Thus in this gambit Congress High Command has put Arjun Singh in his place(he has been a thorn in the flesh for a while), stymied his dynastic ambitions and cut his staunch supporter to size. A victory of sorts for the party managers at the cost of losing at most one seat,if a t all.
As for Akhand Pratap,a one time Congressman and later an Uma lieutenant rose to be a minister in the BJP regime. - a fact unpalatable to the cadre of BJP. Hence he never quite became an insider;and in the post Uma scenario his position became even more tenous ; on top of it, he tried to take on the some of the biggest political managers of BJP.Consequently,he had to face a triple whammy - Akhand was made to stand against Uma Bha rti while the pa rty workers were informally directed to vote for Yadvendra Singh, the Congress candidate. As a result, Akhand lost his deposit while Uma Bharti was defeated thus killing two birds in one stone. Subsequently, Akhand was unceremoniusly expelled from the party.A case study in the craft of politics.

SHIVRAJ SINGH'S SUGGESTIONS UNTENABLE

Shivraj Singh has come with two suggestions towards electoral reforms- that CM & PM should be elected directly and Lok Sabha & Assembly elections should be held simultaneously. Both suggestions are untenable - the objection to directly electing CM/ PM is that ours is not a presidential form of government - in any case politics is a collective activity and CM /PM can at best be more equal among equals . Individualistic polity may work to some extent in developed economies-in a developing state such as ours too strong a CM may do more harm than good. Of course,that is not to say that there should be a weak CM but instead we need a bunch of strong leaders with CM being the strongest if we wish to have quitable growth.
The idea of holding Lok Sabha and Assembly elections simultaneously (on the plea that development process gets hindered on account of frequent elections) too is impractical; as it is ,it is difficult toinform/ educate the Indian voter about the difference in the nature of issues in the LS & assembly ele ctions - if they're held simultaneously,it'll further confound the confusion.

THE SHOE THROWING FETISH

We Indians are quick at aping the worst features of global culture - the incident of shoe throwing at Bush is a case in point. Whereas , shoes were hurled at Bush and the Chinese premier outside their countries - as a protest against their dictatorial attitudes -in India , where we have a functional democracy (even if ineffective ) there is no such scenario and hence no place for these gimmicks. Furthermore , after the initial incidents, there has been no recurrence in the west while in India it has triggered a chain reaction. If only we could imbibe some of the positive aspects of the west!

LEFT - THE RIGHT CHOICE ?

Perhaps in these troubled economic times , Left seems to be the right choice ; it is likely that the slowdown will last upto 2010 - in sync with which we're likely to have an unstable government. During this period the poor and the weak are likely suffer the most.For such people leftists are the best bet. The flip side is that their pro poor stance comes in tandem with the opposition of the rich and the powerful. As there is no achievement phase immediately anticipated , survival is the key issue. For which the left is best placed to provide an answer.The bonus is that the people will have a "real" third alternative for the first time in which Left plays aleading role.( The earlier third front formations were at best pseudo third fronts being the splinter transformations of Cong / BJP ). After their historic mistake in 1996 wherein they blocked Jyoti Basu from being the PM they've amended their constitution and are sending signals that they're ready to have a go. Besides , they have ample experience of running coaltions - in West Bengal as also in Kerala. Till some time back such a proposition was considered bunkum but after three rounds of polling, it certainly has come into the realm of possibility. If I could have my way , I'll go for it - albeit only for this transition period for course adustment.Moreover,this'll make Indian Democracy healthier - India needs a " real" break from the two of a kind- BJP & Congress.If only wishes could be horses!

STEALING EACH OTHERS' THUNDER ?

The two major parties - Congress & BJP- are both accusing each other ( rightly so ) of stealing each others' policies and schemes . Whereas Congress has gone ahead by taking the entire credit for the Prime Minister's rural roads scheme ( which was initiated and partly implemented during the Atal regime ) BJP has usurped the Congress' loan waiver scheme for farmers by claiming it as theirs ....and so on In a way each of the two has tried to steal the others' thunder . When doe s this kind of a thing happen? Whenever the contestants do not have any thunder of their own.

DIABOLICAL POLITICIANS AND MEDIA SUBVERTING THE DEMOCRACY

Politicians and the media are subverting democracy by their diabolical ways .... the former while castigating communalism and criminalistion of politics in public conveniently give tickets to rabid communalists and notorius criminals ; and the media, while pretending to be the mirror of public opinion plants sponsored election related information dresesd up as news onto the unsuspecting readers in the garb of impact features and the like.

LS POLLS - 28 SIMULTANEOUS ELECTIONS ?

S ome people take great pride in the fact that the LS polls of 2009 are like 28 simultaneous elections on account of the hegemony of the re gional parties in various states . They term it as a healthy sign for the Indian democracy. My take on it is slightly different - had there been 28 national parties contesting the polls , it may have been a healthy sign but a dozen odd regional par ties dictating the show is certainly unhealthy. For, by design or circumstance, the regional parties lack a national outlook which is the cornerstone of Lok Sabha.Thus, while they might put up a facade of unity in the face of emotive issues such as war, communal riots etc, many a time they act as breakers in the acts of progress. The reason being that it is virtually impossible to satisfy all regions in any act of development . In such a scenario the regional parties wield their disproportionate clout to scuttle / delay it (viz. the women's reservation bill, nuclear deal etc).

VOTE BANKS AND VOTE EXCHANGES

Wherever there are emotional factors - religious minorities , backward castes , castes in backward states , regionalism etc .- people act as vote banks. As the polity becomes relatively caste and class neutral, the masses act as vote exchanges - voting for those who deliver and booting out the non-dynamic ones.Ove r time , as the country develops (in particular with increasing urbanisation) vote banks will reduce ( though they 'll never vanish ) and vote exchanges will grow - esp.on the national scene.Parties seem to have realised this and are thus downplaying the emotional element in the national elec tions viz. both BJP and Shiv Sena have highlighted development as the main plank in their manifestos and not the emotional factors such as Ram temple , Art. 370 , common civil code or aggressive nationalism.

P.S :(i) No party can make two traditionally antagonistic vote banks collaborate viz. Right wing Hindus of BJP& Muslims- the moment you bring in one the other slips away- as Mulayam Singh is discovering to some extent; Likewise no party can expect cooperation from ideologically opposed vote exchanges viz.Pro- west Capitalists and the left -as Manmohan Singh found out .

SONIA-MANMOHAN POWER DICHOTOMY NOT SUCH A BAD THING

The existence of two power centres - that of Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi - is not such a bad thing for our democracy. In f act to call them as twin power centres is slightly off mark since the former is a "power" centre focussing p rimarily on what needs to be done come what may ( vi z. nuclear deal , e conomic measures , defence policy etc.) while the latter is more a pillar of "strength" - for the poor, weak and the minorities - focusing more on what should" not " be done ( Viz. petrol price rise, NREGP etc .). Thus , it is somewhat of an internal c heck on the polity.In a tangential sort of a way, the Sangh parivar does the same for the BJP (ensuring that it never goes too much off the ideological path). It w ould've had more sanctity if it had evolved as part of a planned process; but then like all things in India, it came about a s a " reaction" to a chaotic situation.

NATIONAL GOVERNMENT IN REVERSE

Some people have been suggesting a national government comprising Congress and the BJP to counter the menace of the regional parties . Something like that happened in Israel in 1964 when the two major rival parties joined hands after being sick of the armtwisting
tactics of the minor players. My take on this is that eventhough both the BJP and the Congress
secretly wish to decimate the regional parties , it is highly unlikely that the two will join hands - whatever the scenario. However , what is likely to happen is that if by some chance the third front does manage to cobble up a government with the support of either BJP or Congres (from outside or ins ide ) a fter a while ( maximum till 2010 ) the two will tacitly come together to bring it down. It 'll be a sort of national government in reverse.

LYNGDOH'S SUGGESTIONS

M.S.Lyngdoh , the former Chief Election Commissioner has come up with two suggestions regarding electoral reforms. Firstly , he suggests that 50% of the seats be decided on the basis of proportional representation and in the remaining seats there should be a refrendum like second round of voting among the two candidates who poll the highest votes in the first round. His plea is that this will ensure a minimum representation for all sections of the society and also preclude the present state wherein many candidates get elected by polling as low as 20 % vo tes in a multipronged contest . My take on it is that the first idea is not tenable since it'll further divide our already fractured society( Mahatma Gandhi had opposed a similar idea of Ambedkar in having seperate constituencies for the scheduled castes on the same basis ; instead we settled for reserved constituencies ) ; as for the second idea- it is an interesting one - in my view , it could be tried out in all those constituencies where the winning candidate polls less than 33% votes.

NETI, NETI COALITIONS

Virtually all the coalitions till date have been formed on a negative basis - on defeating the Congress ( 1977 ), keeping Ram Mandir- Common civil code -Article 370 off( 1998 ) or defeating the communal forces ( 2004 ) and so on.In a way it is like vedas defining god-as neti,neti ( not that, not this .. )... This time out too - the loose coalition by the name of third front is based on keeping the Congress & the BJP out.This approach could be good for religion but is negative for politics So, till the coalitions are formed on a positive agenda - they may be the lesser evil( but are evil all the same).

BUREAUCRATS CONTESTING ELECTIONS A NO-NO

The Indian bureaucracy is supposed to be a neutral ( faceless) one - unlike the committed bureaucracy of Russia and partaker of the spoils system in the US . However , of late , it has started behaving as a committed bureaucracy during its tenure and partaker of the spoils
( fruits of commitment ) after superannuation. This is a very unhealthy sign for our democracy and should be castigated. Though there is no law a gainst a bureaucrat contesting elections ( nor can there ever be ) but it can be amply discouraged by the civil society, media and others. It is somewhat of a lesser evil if a bureaucrat contests after resigning from service ( much before securing his pension ) or is invited to the Rajya Sabha -if his work was exceptional -or if he contests as an independent. However, it is abominable if he serves his full term as a bureaucrat and then plunges into elections via a political outfit. That somewhat puts a question mark on his neutrality during his career. Bhagirath Prasad contesting from Morena on Congres ticket is a case in point.

THIRD, SECOND OR FIRST FRONT ?

The third front is a somewhat unique crea tion of Indian politics.In the hardcore western world of UK & US, it is a two party system all the way; In Europe, one does see multiparty system in a few coun tries - the closest that comes to the Indian model is that of Italy with its multiparty coalitions ( no wonder it is similar to India in may other w ays ) ; however , what is uni que about the Indian third front is its fluidity, its flexibility , heterogeniety - its ability to reinvent and rise from the ashes like the phoenix every time around the Lok Sabha elections. Another interesting aspect in which it differs from the Italian model is that it is formed not so much on any positive aspects or i d eologic al synchronicity but with the negative common ground of defeating- CONG., BJP or both. All in all, it is a very healthy trend for Indian democracy in the long run - eventhough the westernised Indians bred on the two party concept find it apalling- as it will truly reflect the plurality and diversilty of Indian polity. In a s ense this will be India's gift to the world - a new way of looking at politics. However, that 'll be true only when it bec omes a fairly permanent entity will some sort of positive ideological meeting ground.As for the fro nt taking offence to being labelled the third front - it does make sense . Post emergency the third front has operated in cycles coming to power every third time .in that case it bec omes the first front - a difference from this time is that in all those instances the coalition had taken some sort of concrete shape much before the elections - which is not the case this time out . At this point in time , it is any body's guess whether the front comprising non-UPA , non- NDA parties will end up being the first, second or the third front .

VIBHISHAN PARTY

Now that the Lok Sabha elections have been announced , it is time to launch a Vibhishan Party comprising those who are not actually in the party they're enrolled in while being really in the party they're not enrolled in.Their members come to the fore after the elections; in the coalition era , their numbers may actually be the largest.For all you know , such a party may already e xist - some sort of virtual party, that is.

( As told to me by Mr. Wakankar )

TUNNEL VISION

One of the earliest decisions by the BJP government after coming to power is that they've sanctioned the licences for more liquor shops. This is the standard route taken by all the state governments - albeit those which are in their first term or under pressure. Unfortunately, none of these were apparently there but the liquor lobby wouldn't wait till the Lok Sabha elections. As the saying goes - garbage in ,garbage out- if you take the same path as others the results too are going to be the same . Wait till after the parliamentary elections for tough times - on power , financial and political fronts.