The following points are an off the cuff interpretation of the LS elctions 2009.
1. Muslims have voted for a national party( read Congress) once again - chipping away Samjwadi vote .
2. A faint approval of Rahul Gandhi’s youth call(and not as loud as it is made out to be )
3. Reduction / elimination of casteist / Communal / trivial brand of politics.
4. Delimitation has brought in more urban voters into focus as their numbers increased( upto 10 %)- the urban youth in particular has gone to Congress - snatching away the traditional BJP vote.
5. A vote for moderate politics: extremist / emotional politics works in extreme circumstances, if at all.
6. Increase in the vote share of national parties
7. Prolonged elections helped the Congress as they had more intellectual issues to propogate.
8. Dalits (esp. the creamy layer) voted for Congress – eating away from Mayawati's
constituency.
9. Announcing Advani & Manmohan as PM backfired - ( Congress would 've got more seats had it not projected Manmohan as the PM )
10 A victory for clean decent politics-decent leaders, relatively clean candidates.
11. Second time in a row :BJP wins the semi-finals ( Assembly elections ) and loses the national contest.
12. Emergence of new votebanks-cum-exchanges( those which vote en block and move away en block if the parties do not deliver) :caste -class ; community -class & region-class.
14. Congress regaining its social democratic space.
15. Women victors marginally higher in number(61) and their overall participation too has increased- though the figure is still a far cry from the aspired 33%
reservation .
16. Era of pan Indian leaders nearing an end - perhaps Advani was the last of the breed.
17. Though technically the number of offenders who’ve made it has gone up (from 145 to 150 ) but in reality all hardcore /serious offenders have been rejected.
18. The gap between the vote percentages of BJP and Congress has widened beyond 10% for the first time in two decades.
19. Both policies( viz. inclusive growth ) and programmes ( viz.NREGP, Urban Renewal mission etc.) matter - to urban & rural voters respectively.
20 Vote for continuity and change - extrapolation of Congress’ role and truncating that of the regional parties.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
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