LEFT GETS THE WORST OF BOTH WORLDS

Almost all the good things which the previous government did for common man were primarily on Left's exhortion - be it NREGP, RTI , the Forest dweller's bill,farm loan waiver etc.However during the elections Congress has got the credit of it all. On the other hand, all the flak for stalling the wishes of middle and upper middle classes (viz. economic reforms , nuclear deal etc.) was heaped on the communists .Thus the Left got the worst of both worlds while Congress received the best( it regained the support of its traditional vote bank of common man as also the votes of the middle classes which had earlier sided with the BJP.To a large extent Left's plight is on account of exercising control without shouldering responsibility( by not joining the Cabinet).A similar thing had happened to TDP too the last time out. This should provide some food for thought for proponents of "support from outside"- they get left out in the long run.

CABINET FORMATION A NON- RATIONAL EXERCISE

On the face of it, cabinet formation should be about matching the best person to the right job. However, in reality, it is anything but that: in fact , cabinet constitution in India is primarily a non- rational political exercise . Only a handful of heavyweights manage to get key ministries matching their experience , expertise and political stature .Beyond that ,some ministers have to be cut to size - so they're not given the ministry of their choice ( P. Chidambaram; D. Maran ) ; others have to be merely pruned - so their ministry/ status is pruned ( Praful Patel, Sharad Pawar); still others are included in view of forthcoming / recently concluded assembly elections their state ( Vilasrao Desh mukh , Subodhkant Sahai ) ; besides , a few are included at the behest of political lobbyists / networking( Sushil Shinde ) while others are vetoed by the competing colleagues ( Girija Vyas , Sandeep Dixit ) ; Moreover, the secondary parameters of caste (Ku. Sailaja, M. Khadge , Mukul Wasnik, K. Teerath ) ,community
( S.Khurshid) , region ( Shrikant Jena, Harish Rawat), tribe ( Kantilal Bhuria )and gender ( D.Purandeshwari ) have to be balanced too alongwith coalition compulsions wherever applicable ( Agatha Sangma) -; The tertiary criteria of age ,lineage and experience also have to factored in ( zhagiri ).All this leaves only a small window for those chosen purely on merit ( Shashi Tharoor ; Parag Jain )... Usually the ones who satisfy the primary, secondary as well as tertiary criteria ( viz . region, community and political stature ) get the cabinet berth ( Farooq Abdullah ); those matching the primary and
Secondary parmeters a re given m.o.s with independent charge
( Panbaka Lakshmi) and the ones fitting only a tertiary criteria land m.o.s ( Arun Yadav,) .Every cabinet constitution some new ministries being created (min.of non- conventional energy resources ) , others being combined / re combined; some erstwhile relatively unimportant ministries acquire importance in a particular phase ( HRD, Surface transport )
The major difference in cabinet constitution between western democracies and India is that while theirs is primarily a rational exercise with a bit of non- rationality thrown in ,ours is predominantly a non-rational act with rationality as mere symbolism; ours get done in phases and emotional factors play greater role (accommodating/ compensating the disgruntled elements). Its outcome is for all to see - whereas the western ministers peform and deliver, ours trundle and grumble. All in all, setting up a good team via cabinet formation is only half the job done- the real and more important half is to be able to make the team perform upto its potential. That is where Manmohan - Sonia- Rahul will be truly tested .

MANMOHAN LACKS CHARISHMA , ADVANI BEREFT OF AURA

Mamohan Singh is among the most uncharismatic leaders in the higher echleons of Indian polity- in that he is not the motivating factor for anyone to perform out of his skin; he is decent and his integrity is beyond doubt but he appeals only to the head with little impact on the heart; Advani on the other hand, has all the outward qualities of a leader - he is a decent orator ; has a mass base and possesses a long and eventful political record; however , there is something negative about his aura that people do not implicitly trust him; In the light of these, projecting the two as prime ministerial candidates was an exercise in selfishness of the vested interests which harmed the parties as well as the country. Sonia by projecting a non- threatening leader in Manmohan Singh wanted to keep the seat warm for Rahul Gandhi- in the process, the country has got a dependant Prime minister and the post has been devalued. My take is that had Manmohan not been projected Congress may have got more seats ; likewise by projecting Advani ,the armchair politicians surrounding him harmed the party's prospects and conse quently gave the country a relatively weak opposition. In a way, it has turned out to be a Hobson's choice in 2009 as far as electing Prime ministers is concerned.

"REAL" PM IN WAITING

Eventhough Advani was the official PM in waiting designate, it is Rahul Gandhi who is the "real" PM in wait. My take is that he'll focus all his energies on UP, Gujarat, Bihar & West Bengal elections till 2011 whereafter he'll accept a cabinet post and by the 2014 LS e lections he'll be announced as the Prime ministerial candidate. If for some reason ( health or otherwise ) Manmohan Singh is unable to continue till 2011, some stopgap arrangement in the form of Pranab Mukherji of A.K Antony may be made fo r the intervening period.

L.S . VERDICT 2009 MADE SIMPLE

The following points are an off the cuff interpretation of the LS elctions 2009.
1. Muslims have voted for a national party( read Congress) once again - chipping away Samjwadi vote .
2. A faint approval of Rahul Gandhi’s youth call(and not as loud as it is made out to be )
3. Reduction / elimination of casteist / Communal / trivial brand of politics.
4. Delimitation has brought in more urban voters into focus as their numbers increased( upto 10 %)- the urban youth in particular has gone to Congress - snatching away the traditional BJP vote.
5. A vote for moderate politics: extremist / emotional politics works in extreme circumstances, if at all.
6. Increase in the vote share of national parties
7. Prolonged elections helped the Congress as they had more intellectual issues to propogate.
8. Dalits (esp. the creamy layer) voted for Congress – eating away from Mayawati's
constituency.
9. Announcing Advani & Manmohan as PM backfired - ( Congress would 've got more seats had it not projected Manmohan as the PM )
10 A victory for clean decent politics-decent leaders, relatively clean candidates.
11. Second time in a row :BJP wins the semi-finals ( Assembly elections ) and loses the national contest.
12. Emergence of new votebanks-cum-exchanges( those which vote en block and move away en block if the parties do not deliver) :caste -class ; community -class & region-class.
14. Congress regaining its social democratic space.
15. Women victors marginally higher in number(61) and their overall participation too has increased- though the figure is still a far cry from the aspired 33%
reservation .
16. Era of pan Indian leaders nearing an end - perhaps Advani was the last of the breed.
17. Though technically the number of offenders who’ve made it has gone up (from 145 to 150 ) but in reality all hardcore /serious offenders have been rejected.
18. The gap between the vote percentages of BJP and Congress has widened beyond 10% for the first time in two decades.
19. Both policies( viz. inclusive growth ) and programmes ( viz.NREGP, Urban Renewal mission etc.) matter - to urban & rural voters respectively.
20 Vote for continuity and change - extrapolation of Congress’ role and truncating that of the regional parties.

PREDICTION CORRECT AGAIN

I'd predicted on this blog on Oct 18,2008 while writing about the aSsembly polls that Congress will win the Lok Sabha elections. To quote :
"...A side benefit of this will be that Congress will gain relatively in the Lok Sabha elections (since the Hindutva votes would have reached their limit in the assembly polls and the votes of the minor parties would get transformed to the Congress ).In fact , the way they’ve gone about things shows no deep seated belief about a realistic chance of victory in the assembly polls...."
This is the second time I've been on spot - the first being in 2004 wherein I'd said that Congress will lose the semi-finals ( assembly elctions in MP) but go on to win the Parliamentary elections.

MEDIA IN LS - 2009 : ROLE & TRENDS

Media has emerged as a crucial player in LS-2009 elections - much more so than ever before. I use the word "player" and not its designated role of obsever since more often than not it strayed from true journalistic principles of independence and balance .This situation arose primarily on account of the fact that this was perhaps the most " indoor " election till date- on account of lack of issues , IPL, scorching summer and a too protracted electoral process .From subtle planting of stories to clever spin on programming to blatant advertorials - it didn't need any
genius to discern the slant(s).From an active media , it became an activist media. Often it was creative journalism at its best.
Some new trends appeared too : tie - ups between newspapers and TV channels ; between newspapers of various regions ; new media ; print journalists in TV newsrooms ; TV journos writing for newspapers ; some channels showing exit polls only in terms of percentages (and not seats) ; public service campaigns by corporates etc. One could term it as confluence-a sort of content convergence . However , its efficacy was at best incremental ; regional copies lacked the desirable insights- perhaps lost in translation ; print journalists in TV newsrooms many a time reacted erroneously to breaking news - perhaps lost in transition - with no double checks of the desk to back them( newsroom is the wrong place to have print journalists - they should've been part of the studio discussions ; print pieces by TV journalists were stenographic - with their trademark lack of depth ( it became even more glaring as they were placed on the editorial pages) ; E xit polls should've known that percentages alone are not the place for TV as it needs the simpleast common denominator i.e the number of seats ( statistical jugglery is best reserved for newspapers/ journals / net ). All in all, it appears that our media( esp. the new media )is still getting its act together- just as our polity - a truly mature media will appear by 2014- shake ups and consolidation will ensure that.

REVERSE FEDERALISM

The constitution professes our polity to be federal whereas in reality it was at best quasi-federal for a long time in a sense that the centre was too strong for the states. Post 1990 ,there has been a continual dilution of the status - so much so that now it seems to be a case of reverse federalism - in that the regional outfits are king makers. The situation has come about primarily on account of the national parties sticking mostly to vote bank politics and simultaneous strengthening of the regions economically on account of liberalisation.
It is a dangerous positon to be in since the polity becomes centrifugal rather than centripetal as it was designed.Not that a fragmented polity translates into a fragmented India but it sure does imapact the growth adversely.In situations such as these , the nation has to make do with creations like the common minimum programme-which can at best ensure incremental growth( as the nomenclature suggests ).Whereas in an ideal federal state there should be a possibility for a maximum common programme too wherein the government tries to realise cumulatively all that has be promised by the coalition partners. India should come up with national coalition(s) led by national party(ies) with regional outfits as junior partners on the basis of both a common maximum programme ( about what needs to be done ) as also a common minimum agenda (about what "not" to do-viz.Keeping Art. 370, Ram Temple issue etc. away ).Only then can we be a healthy federation.

NO REAL ANATHEMAS AT THE CENTRE

Barring the irreconcilbility of the Congress & the BJP and BJP & the Left there are no real anathemas at the centre: SP-BSP; AIADMK-DMK;JD(U)-RJD and the rest can go to either of the three major coalition blocks- UPA; NDA or the third front or at least two of the fronts ( Viz.TDP, BJD etc ) without any compunction. This may be a bit unpalatable to the western observers - esp. those with a two party system.However, there is nothing immoral about it-just as the Congress and BJP agree on many international / foreign policy issues without necessarily forming a national government , the regional parties too can share / switch platforms at the centre in the name of national issues ( viz. secularism ) while fighting it out against the same parties in the states.The situation will continue till the space for the third and poosibly the fourth pan national parties gets filled up . It could be the expansion of te Left (perhaps by bringing in Naxalites into the mainstream ) and /or a pan India Muslim party or some such thing.Till such time the Indian political scene will remain somewhat like shooting a Hindi film - without a too structured script or no script at all. Just leave your brains behind and see for yourself that it works.

SHIFTING BLAME ONTO PAST LEADERS IN POOR TASTE

Both Congress and BJP have found an ingenuous way ( albeit in bad taste) to get around issues which were proving to be an albatross around their neck. Whereas the Congress has shifted the blame for inaction in the Babri Masjid demolition upon Narasimha Rao (Digvijay Singh admitted that it was a mistake) BJP tried to pass on the buck for the Kandahar highjack and release of terrorists fiasco onto Atal Bihari. Logically, they are correct - for, Narasimha Rao and Atal were the respective PM's during these cases but what is in poor taste is that all these years both the parties attempted to skirt these - only now when Narasimha Rao is no more and Atal Bihari has reti red from politics that these parties have tried to use them as scapegoats. Goes on to show that there is little to choose between the two major parties not merely in all major policies but also in approach to uncomfortable questions.

ALLIANCES , CROSS -ALLIANCES OR JUGAAD ?

The alliance era has sprung some very interesting scenarios.Those who had hoped that the two blocks of alliances would stabilise - as a prelude to the two party system- are most likely to be dissapointed with the three emerging amorphous blocks of alliances . This is a healthy sign for Indian Democracy as the two other alliances were much of the same thing ( Including many common players ) - in that they had practically the same approach to all major issues.However , there is still a long way to go before it can be called a robust state. It has to do with two factors - nature of alliances and the timing of their formation. In both the alliances, barring the core parties ( Cong and BJP ) and the anathemas (viz. SP& BSP; AIDMK & DMK) all the other players are floaters. Besides , they are both post poll creations whereby seat arithematic is the glue - irrespectie of the idelogical differences . In a sense , it is like all other Indian things - reactive ; whereas had they been pre- poll , the basis would 've been ideology or common agenda.In that case,the alliance would 've been active,even pro-active. The fact of the matter is that if the alliance /coming together is pre-poll , it helps to achieve certain goals( as in the case of Janata party in 1977 ) whereas if it is post poll -on the basis of seat tally , it helps to survive on the basis of proven ground strength. However, the negative fallout is that the growth is at best incremental , by entities such as common minimum programme. Ideally, there should be both a pre-poll as well as post poll alliance- the former should be based on a common agenda- only the relative emphasis should be finetuned post poll on the basis of seats won. In any scenario such as the current one where the alliances are among too unequal partners - it 'll lead to aberrations wherein the regional satraps start harbouring national ambitions and the situation will invariably remain fluid.The way outwill once again be typically Indian -Jugaad.However, the only point to be noted is that Jugaad can at best produce a functional entity, never a superior one.

NEGATIVE INDIAN DEMOCRACY

Indian Democracy is in most parts negative - a fact reflected during elections.All major parties debate negatively- trying to justify their own negative acts in the light of similar negative acts committed by the opponents ; most minority vote banks act negatively - against a particular candidate/ party rather than in favour ; almost all the parties select candidates with negative track records - on the pretext of winnability ; and ,on assuming office, most parties have a negative agenda - of discontinuing / co-opting even the good programmes of the previous government ; witchhunting the opposition leaders etc. - amid all this negativity we must be really naive to expect positive outcomes from our democracy.The need of the hour is to counter negativity of all the aspects- choice of candidates , debates agenda of office et al.

Akhand Pratap Singh & Indrajeet Patel-interesting case studies

The cases of Indrajeet Patel and Akhand Pratap Singh during the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections respectively makes for interesting study.In both these, the corresponding parties(BJP and Congress ) scored muliple points in one shot.Indrajeet,a one time Arjun acolyte is the Congress candidate from Sidhi against Veena Singh (Arjun Singh's daughter who was denied ticket and is contesting as an independent). Unconfirmed reports say say that Arjun Singh had sought ticket for Veena Singh from Satna and Ajay Singh from Sidhi- the party denied both and instead gave the ticket to Indrajeet. In this scenario Patel's defeat is a foregone conclusion. Thus in this gambit Congress High Command has put Arjun Singh in his place(he has been a thorn in the flesh for a while), stymied his dynastic ambitions and cut his staunch supporter to size. A victory of sorts for the party managers at the cost of losing at most one seat,if a t all.
As for Akhand Pratap,a one time Congressman and later an Uma lieutenant rose to be a minister in the BJP regime. - a fact unpalatable to the cadre of BJP. Hence he never quite became an insider;and in the post Uma scenario his position became even more tenous ; on top of it, he tried to take on the some of the biggest political managers of BJP.Consequently,he had to face a triple whammy - Akhand was made to stand against Uma Bha rti while the pa rty workers were informally directed to vote for Yadvendra Singh, the Congress candidate. As a result, Akhand lost his deposit while Uma Bharti was defeated thus killing two birds in one stone. Subsequently, Akhand was unceremoniusly expelled from the party.A case study in the craft of politics.

SHIVRAJ SINGH'S SUGGESTIONS UNTENABLE

Shivraj Singh has come with two suggestions towards electoral reforms- that CM & PM should be elected directly and Lok Sabha & Assembly elections should be held simultaneously. Both suggestions are untenable - the objection to directly electing CM/ PM is that ours is not a presidential form of government - in any case politics is a collective activity and CM /PM can at best be more equal among equals . Individualistic polity may work to some extent in developed economies-in a developing state such as ours too strong a CM may do more harm than good. Of course,that is not to say that there should be a weak CM but instead we need a bunch of strong leaders with CM being the strongest if we wish to have quitable growth.
The idea of holding Lok Sabha and Assembly elections simultaneously (on the plea that development process gets hindered on account of frequent elections) too is impractical; as it is ,it is difficult toinform/ educate the Indian voter about the difference in the nature of issues in the LS & assembly ele ctions - if they're held simultaneously,it'll further confound the confusion.